Nothing lasts forever, and we both know hearts can change. And it’s hard to hold a candle in the cold November rain.
Axl Rose may not know shit about NFL betting, but he sure knows about good things going bad.
For NFL bettors, that candle has been underdog profits, with teams getting the points going 67-53-1 ATS so far this season (56%).
Since 2010, NFL underdogs have covered 54 percent of the time between Week 1 and Week 8 of the schedule, including a scorching 10-4-1 ATS mark for pointspread pups last week.
Once the calendar flips to Week 9, however, and the cold November rain moves in, those thriving underdog NFL picks wither, covering at just a 49 percent clip for the remainder of the season.
There are a couple reasons for this change in fortune for NFL underdogs. The undervalued teams that caught bookies by surprise in the opening half of the schedule are now valued correctly. And the bad teams – which make up the bulk of underdogs each week – are often worse come November, as the season has slipped away and players, coaches and the front office folks start looking ahead to next year.
But, as Axl sang, “never mind the darkness, we still can find a way”. That brings us to our Week 9 NFL Underdogs picks. Because nothing lasts forever, even cold November rain.
