After all that grumbling, Aaron Rodgers is back with the Green Bay Packers in 2022. But what did it cost him? Not $150.8 million, that’s for sure.
The Cheeseheads did send top target Davante Adams to Las Vegas, leaving the NFL MVP to truly earn his money this season. Luckily for Packers backers, a dominant run game and promising defense can help carry the weight in Rodgers’ golden years.
Green Bay’s NFL odds still hold this franchise to a high standard and there’s major pressure on this team to get over its postseason problems and add to A-Rod’s legacy before he’s fed up. The Packers will once again be good but may go about their business in a different way in 2022.
Find out how in our Green Bay Packers NFL betting preview.
Green Bay Packers futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +1,000 |
| To win conference | +450 |
| To win division | -180 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 11 (Over -110) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes -420 / No +350 |
Best futures bet: Over 11 wins (-110)
We’ll discuss the ranging power rating for the 2022 Packers in the sections below, but to get you an idea of where bookies sit with this team, the win total ranges from 10.5 to 11.5 across the industry with hefty vig on either side of those extremes.
Some look-ahead markets have Green Bay as a favorite in 13 games with two pick’ems. Others have a clean 15 contests as the betting chalk. Either way, the Cheeseheads are projected to eclipse this 11-win total with plenty of headroom and a quick rundown of the slate easily adds up to 11-plus victories.
Like him or not, Rodgers is the reigning MVP and is backed up by an awesome O-line, underrated rushing attack, and a defense poised for massive improvement against a super-soft slate of pop-gun offenses. The Cheeseheads won 13 games against tougher competition last year and we’ll once again need to include our toes when counting Green Bay’s wins in 2022.
Green Bay Packers betting overview
What will win bets: Rushing attack
Having a four-time MVP at quarterback helps keep the box light but you can’t take anything away from the Packers’ potent ground game, with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon proving their worth. Green Bay finished sixth in EPA per handoff in 2021 and eighth in rush offense DVOA at Football Outsiders, yet Matt LaFleur dialed up the run just over 41% of the time.
Now, with the passing game relying on a paper-thin depth chart, the Pack’s run attack has a chance to step out of Rodgers’ shadow. And while some foes are pegged for improvement in 2022, the schedule features 11 games against defenses that ranked outside the Top 15 in run stop DVOA last year (eight vs. DVOA’s of 24th or worse).
Jones and Dillon have a nose for the end zone, scoring a combined 17 touchdowns (rush and receiving) and have the league’s No. 2-rated offensive line in front of them. These guys will put the Packers ahead on the scoreboard and then protect those leads for bettors in the home stretch.
What will lose bets: Paltry pass game
The Adams trade and Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s departure left little in the cupboard for Rodgers in 2022. Top tight end Robert Tonyan is slowly returning from an ACL tear, which has Rodgers’ BFF Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins as the best-known commodities (if those guys survive the final cuts) in the receiver’s room. That would be fine if it was 2015.
Rodgers’ talent can lift those veterans and some younger WRs, but he’s already been very vocal about his disappointment with these options during training camp. Defenses no longer have to double-team Adams and can play this group straight up. If the drops and bad route running stack up, the passing game could get pedestrian, and Rodgers’ fragile ego could flare up again.
Where this trickles down to the NFL bettor is if the market still prices the Packers as one of the most potent passing games in the league. Last season, the Cheeseheads were tops in EPA per dropback (+0.222) and that advanced metric will undoubtedly take a tumble in 2022.
As you’ll see in the look-ahead lines below, Green Bay’s power rating differs book to book — as much as a field goal in some games — and Rodgers and this ragtag bunch of receivers could leave backers a few points short of a cover some Sundays.
More Covers NFL betting analysis
- Super Bowl odds
- NFL MVP odds
- Comeback Player of the Year odds
- Defensive Player of the Year odds
Green Bay Packers game-by-game odds
Look-ahead lines for the Packers vary. Some books have the Cheeseheads as the chalk in 13 games with two other contests (at Eagles and vs. Rams) as pick’em lines. Other shops have Green Bay as a favorite in 15 games, with the Packers -2.5 at Philly and -2.5 hosting L.A.
It’s not just those lines that sway, with Green Bay seeing major discrepancies in some late-season matchups. The Pack range from -4 to -7 visiting the Bears in Week 13 and there are a number of spreads that have a -1 to -2.5 difference in rating. Books are confident the Packers will be great, but how great varies from spot to spot.
Green Bay faces an average spread of -4.18 in 2022 (according to lines at Superbook) and gets a shift in gears from 2021 when it faced the fourth toughest strength of schedule. This year, the Cheeseheads get a schedule ranked out 22nd and sit 27th in my QB SOS with Rodgers giving Green Bay a massive edge at quarterback most weeks.
| 1 | @ Minnesota | -2 | 48 |
| 2 | vs. Chicago | -10 | 45.5 |
| 3 | @ Tampa Bay | +3 | 52.5 |
| 4 | vs. New England | -5.5 | 48 |
| 5 | vs. N.Y. Giants (UK) | -7 | 46 |
| 6 | vs. N.Y. Jets | -9.5 | 46 |
| 7 | @ Washington | -4 | 47.5 |
| 8 | @ Buffalo | +3.5 | 52 |
| 9 | @ Detroit | -6.5 | 48.5 |
| 10 | vs. Dallas | -4 | 50 |
| 11 | vs. Tennessee | -5.5 | 48 |
| 12 | @ Philadelphia | -2.5 | 46.5 |
| 13 | @ Chicago | -7 | 46.5 |
| 14 | BYE | ||
| 15 | vs. L.A. Rams | -2.5 | 50 |
| 16 | @ Miami | -2.5 | 48 |
| 17 | vs. Minnesota | -6.5 | 45.5 |
| 18 | vs. Detroit | -7.5 | 45 |
Green Bay Packers pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
Green Bay has quietly morphed into one of the better running and defense-led teams in the league. All the talk is about the receivers, but the rest of the roster is stacked.
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